Since the recent U.S. presidential election, there’s been a fair amount of speculation about what the employment picture will look like under the incoming administration. As of this writing, there are no guarantees about how jobs will be affected. And the speculation will likely continue for the immediate future only because any actions taken by the next president may – or may not – take effect immediately, and the results to those actions may or may not be felt by the general populace right away.
Hank, WTF are you talking about?
Here’s what I can tell you with relative certainty. At this moment, there are outcomes that are fairly safe bets:
If about three million people suddenly became employed as farmworkers in the next year, we will be able to avoid a major increase to food costs. This is highly unlikely when the national average pay for farmworkers is under $15 per hour – less than $35,000 per year. If actions promised by the next administration decimate the current population of farmworkers and other food-workers, there will be fewer people in the fields, taking longer to harvest goods and get them to retailers, Restaurants will struggle to fill many positions. Overall food production will likely drop, potentially leading to shortages and fewer food options for the consumer. These conditions will definitely lead to a dramatic increase to the cost of your food. Employees in the entire food service industry will be impacted.
The United States imports a staggeringly huge volume of diverse goods from Canada and Mexico. If the promised high tariffs are added to the price of goods coming from our northern and southern neighbors, many items could potentially double in price to the end consumer. This will lead to increased inflation. The U.S. companies that import, distribute and sell those goods will suffer dramatic increases to their costs, and likely suffer because of fewer goods going through their pipeline. This in turn will cause a reduction in the capital they have to pay fair salaries, and ultimately necessitate layoffs.
The tech sector is already making moves to protect themselves from the tariffs that will be added to finished goods as well as the raw materials and parts that are needed to manufacture a wide variety of products domestically. Layoffs are mounting in hopes that money saved from fewer employees can be used to shore up their supply chains. Innovation will also be hampered. One tech company whose mission is to assist workers in networking and job search just had their 3rd round of downsizing in the past year. One of the world’s largest chip makers trimmed over 3,000 workers globally in the last twelve months. Finding work in tech is going to become more competitive for fewer openings.
Healthcare, which is already having its staffing issues, will take another big hit if there are big changes in the field. If the incoming administration decimates Social Security and Medicare, as it has threatened to do, millions of Americans will lose access to proper care and services, costing individuals higher out-of-pocket expenses that many can’t afford. Hospitals and other medical facilities will take fewer patients because they will not receive the reimbursement they do from the current healthcare system. Staffing shortages will mount and there will be layoffs to anyone deemed unessential, hurting all services from admitting and maintenance to surgical support. The hardest hit will be seniors, those with disabilities and folks with pre-existing conditions. Health Insurance coverage will skyrocket and be harder to obtain.
One of the biggest employers in the U.S. is the Federal government. Traditionally, government jobs were relatively bullet-proof and secure. The jobs paid reasonably well and offered great long-term benefits. If the incoming administration reorganizes and/or eliminates as many departments as has been projected, thousands of federal employees could lose their jobs and their benefits. Longer lines at the unemployment office will result.
These are only some of the areas that are likely to be affected by the next administration, IF they make the changes threatened before and since the election. Should the incoming administration leave things as they are the status quo could be maintained. The crystal ball remains foggy; there are no guarantees!
Please, recognize that each of these industries/sectors are occupied by thousands of employees with an insanely diverse array of skills and disciplines, and they are not the only industries to be affected. Admin, tech, sales, communication, research, marketing, etc. Name a job title, and it’s more likely than not to be affected by the decisions of the next administration. But we can’t forget that those coming in will not be the first, nor the last, to make sweeping changes that affected a huge number of citizens!
In navigating these changes affecting employment it remains important for job seekers to know where they fit in, to know what they want to do, to be realistic about the value and application of their skills, and be able to set themselves apart and distinguish what they offer from their competition in order to be recognized by their target employers for the value they can add to the workplace. This has never been as simple as it sounds, and conveys that it is more important than ever for job seekers to invest their time and efforts wisely and judiciously.
In spite of all of the above, I wish you all the best of luck. I also want to wish you and yours the Happiest of Holidays and a New Year filled with Health, Happiness and Growth.
Peace!
Hank
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